DisplaySearch: Solar Capacity in ‘Enormous Oversupply'
DisplaySearch said manufacturing capacity by the solar industry is expected to increase by 56% this year, resulting in "enormous oversupply." The supply/demand imbalance could put the existence of the weaker cell manufacturers in jeopardy, the market research firm reported.
David Lammers, News Editor -- PV Society, 8/11/2009
Market research firm DisplaySearch (Austin, Texas) reported that solar cell manufacturing capacity is expected to grow 56% in 2009, resulting in "enormous over-supply." On the plus side, the report said the industry may work off excess capacity as demand recovers next year and takes off again in 2011 and beyond.
However, the current oversupply situation could put the existence of the weaker cell manufacturers in jeopardy, particularly companies pursuing a-Si thin-film solar cells, the company said in its Quarterly PV Cell Capacity Database & Trends Report.
Charles Annis, the author of the DisplaySearch report, said despite weak demand, enough cell manufacturing equipment was ordered and installed over the past year to grow capacity by 56% this year. "With demand and capacity moving in different directions, the PV industry is currently experiencing an enormous over-supply that is causing rapid price erosion and potentially setting the stage for the failure of multiple cell manufacturers, particularly companies pursuing a-Si thin-film solar cells," Annis said.
Between January 2008 and July 2009, approximately 11.4 GW of new solar cell capacity was installed in fabs around the world. Worldwide capacity was only 2.3 GW in 2005 but is expected to total 17 GW this year, the firm said. Ramped capacity is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 49% to >42 GW in 2013.
China has continued to invest heavily in production facilities, with ~one-third of worldwide cell capacity in 2009. Through 2006, Japan had the largest solar cell production capacity in the world. However, Chinese companies started to ramp up a host of new facilities in 2005 and by 2007 had more solar cell capacity on line than any other country.
In 2005, ~95% of cell manufacturing capacity was for cSi cells and ~5% for thin-film solar cells. This year, thin-film will account for >20%, and ~30% by 2013.
First Solar is the largest solar cell manufacturer, with more than 1 GW of capacity, trailed closely by Q-Cells and Suntech. By 2013, the Top 10 producers also will include JA Solar, Motech, REC, SunPower, Yingli, Showa Shell Solar (assuming it moves forward with a planned 1 GW CIGS fab) and Sharp. The Top 10 makers will have >16 GW of capacity, or 38% of the total in 2013. For a-Si factories, in 2009 the four largest turnkey equipment vendors are AMAT, Oerlikon, ULVAC and EPV, representing 946 MW of ramped capacity or >50% of a-Si capacity on-line this year.
The report notes that of the 3.58 GW of thin-film capacity available in 2009, more than 30% use 600 × 1200 mm glass substrates, the standard CdTe glass size used by First Solar. The Gen 5-equivalent substrates, ranging from 1000 × 1200 to 1100 ×1400 mm, are the second most common glass size, used for 18% of thin-film capacity.
