iSuppli: Half of Solar Panels Won't Be Installed in 2009
iSuppli predicted that almost half of the solar panels made this year won't be sold in 2009, as a "massive oversupply situation" continues. In spite of the glut, several of the largest manufacturers are continuing to ramp up production in a market share race.
David Lammers, News Editor -- PV Society, 8/10/2009
iSuppli (El Segundo, Calif.) issued a report claiming that nearly half of all solar panels made this year won't be sold in 2009, and that a "massive oversupply situation" will persist until 2012.
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Old and new forecasts for solar panel production in GW, for both crystalline and thin film. Source: iSuppli, August 2009 |
Henning Wicht, iSuppli's principal analyst for photovoltaics, said a "collapse in demand" occurred when Spain opted to change its feed-in-tariff policies. "This demand drop led to a massive buildup of inventory throughout the supply chain, from the raw material polysilicon, to PV cells, to complete solar systems," Wicht said. "Despite this, solar panel makers have continued to increase capacity and production, exacerbating the inventory buildup."
iSuppli predicted that total solar panel production in 2009 will grow by 14.3% to 7.5 GW, up from 6.5 GW in 2008. However, installations will absorb only 3.9 GW worth of those panels, meaning that ~half of the panels produced in 2009 will not be installed. The rest will go into inventory.
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| Previous and current global solar panel production forecasts in gigawatts (crystalline and thin film). Source: ISupply, Aug. 2009 |
The oversupply situation will continue until 2012, when Wicht predicted that "fast-growing demand for solar installations will be able to absorb global panel production and inventory."
The market research firm said that despite the global recession, most of the leading producers of solar panels — including Suntech, Sharp and JA Solar — will continue to grow, and have no intention of slowing production of cells and panels. "Even in the face of the downturn, many panel and cell producers have continued to ramp up their capacities as if a recession had never occurred," Wicht said. "Most companies are doing this in order to maintain their share in the market."
As a result, iSuppli predicts Suntech will replace Q-Cells as the leading producer of crystalline cells in 2009. Sharp, Yingli and JA Solar "will defend their Top Five positions this year by not reducing their solar-cell production increases," the company said. Q-Cells, SunPower and BP Solar are among the suppliers that have adjusted production as a result of the softening demand. As a result, iSuppli said they "have seen their short- and mid-term strategies falter."
Q-Cells reduced cell and panel expansion at its plant in Malaysia, and iSuppli said it has "significantly reduced production targets" in 2009. SunPower also cut back its plans for expansion, while BP Solar has closed its panel production operations in Malaysia and Spain.
"While some companies are hiking up production in order to maintain their positions in the market, others are forced to undertake short-term production cuts and delay or even cancel long-term expansion projects," iSuppli said.
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